.gif)
Initially projected to be one of the most active hurricane seasons, now strangely quiet
After Hurricane Beryl kicked off the hurricane season in record breaking timing earlier in July, it has been a relatively quiet period of calm in Colorado County, dismantling many meteorologists’ predictions of a busy season.
Tropical Storm Francine threatened to make landfall this past week, but fortunately strayed out of the pathway to the relief of residents.
With almost three months to go before the end of hurricane season, nothing is in the clear yet, but given the highly unusual inactivity, it is no surprise that this is the longest stretch without the formation of a hurricane since 1968.
Colorado State University Principal Forecaster Philip J. Klotzbach predicted earlier in the season that there would potentially be 25 named storms, 12 being hurricanes, with the average number of named storms a season usually sitting at 14.
Since Beryl, there have only been four other named storms.
Lower Colorado River Authority Meteorologist Bob Rose, who had seen Beryl as an “early warning sign” was amongst the meteorologists who predicted the season to be an active one. However, Rose emphasizes that these storms are still hard to predict, given that a lot of major ones have occurred late into hurricane season and how they may even have to wait until October to see the forecast play out.
“It is kind of hard to say what this means for future seasons coming up,” said Rose. “All Beryl did was show that we can get some of the strongest storms, category fives, early in the season and that you do not have to wait until August or September. The forecasting indicated that this was going to be a very active season, we just need to move a little further, even into October.”
One of Rose’s primary concerns about the Colorado River is potential flooding if a large amount of runoff were unable to be stored in the river’s primary tributary, the Lake Travis flood control reservoir.
This would lead to the LCRA having to ultimately let the water down the river according to Rose, who says if that were to be the case, it could cause the riverbank to fill up, pushing it into a flood stage even if the storm does not directly hit Colorado County.
“Depending on how much water is required to be released out of Lake Travis,” said Rose. “It could put the river up at the bank full. So even if the storms do not make a direct hit, it could still have an indirect impact if they produce a huge amount of rain over the watershed to the Colorado River.”
Rose remarks that because the Colorado River extends all the way through to Sonora, El Dorado and even Brownwood, a couple hundred miles away from Colorado County, these hurricanes can still have a big influence due to the river’s connectivity.
Despite the circumstances of the timing of Hurricane Beryl, Rose says there is not a particular linear increase year by year in the number of storms. A multitude of factors go into play that dictate every hurricane season, like sea surface temperatures, and even then, these factors still may not be clear enough accurately forecast the amount of storms.
“Those factors just are not as favorable,” said Rose. “Like the sea surface temperatures may not be as cool or maybe we are in an El Nino year, which is a more unfavorable atmosphere over the Atlantic. But in some years, we are seeing competing factors that tend to make lower storms. We are not seeing a general increase in the number of storms per year. But having said that, last year, there were 28 storms, and the forecasts were not calling for that many storms.”
Regardless of predictions not coming to fruition or vice versa, Rose says residents should still be cautious about the rest of the hurricane season, urging everyone to continue to be aware of what could potentially still come about.
“I think for folks in Colorado County, it means that definitely cannot let our guard down,” said Rose. “We need to continue to keep a really close watch on what’s going on, the Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Gulf. We are going forward all the way through October so we could still see more storms come up towards the Texas coast. It might be the lower coast. It could have big impacts on Colorado County. It could be wind, both tornadoes. It just means that we are definitely under the gun. Colorado County is not that far inland from the coast, so we can still see really strong really strong hurricane force winds and even stronger in torrential rains.”
